{"allowContribute":false,"item":{"bubbleScore":62,"createdAt":1788224247897,"dominantVars":"9 月 FOMC 是否重啟升息、美伊戰爭與油價走向、AI CapEx 循環能否持續被真實需求消化","id":"eeda520beadb3e0f5e7bcce2","isPublic":true,"itemType":"US_MARKET_STATUS","name":"市場狀態 2026-09-01 週","originPluginDir":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","originPluginID":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","parents":{"default_usdash_folder_6a952a2a0112437cd678ae":1788224247897},"regime":"Late Cycle","riskLight":"yellow","summary":"Late Cycle：通膨回升迫使 Fed 轉鷹（9 月升息機率 66%）、美伊戰爭推高油價，指數靠 Mega Cap 與 AI 撐住且市場寬度極差，但信用利差仍無壓力，尚未出現需要大幅降低曝險的系統性訊號。","updatedAt":1788228889423,"updatedBy":{"userId":"6a952a2a0112437cd678ae","userName":"ming heng Hui"},"version":2,"weekLabel":"2026-09-01 週"},"ownerMemberId":"6a952a2a0112437cd678ae","ownerName":"ming heng Hui","publicPlugins":{"US_MARKET_STATUS":{"pluginItemId":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","pluginDir":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","bundleHash":"7f145978619690ef","live":true}},"subtree":[{"bubbleScore":62,"createdAt":1788224247897,"dominantVars":"9 月 FOMC 是否重啟升息、美伊戰爭與油價走向、AI CapEx 循環能否持續被真實需求消化","id":"eeda520beadb3e0f5e7bcce2","isPublic":true,"itemType":"US_MARKET_STATUS","name":"市場狀態 2026-09-01 週","originPluginDir":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","originPluginID":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","parents":{"default_usdash_folder_6a952a2a0112437cd678ae":1788224247897},"regime":"Late Cycle","riskLight":"yellow","summary":"Late Cycle：通膨回升迫使 Fed 轉鷹（9 月升息機率 66%）、美伊戰爭推高油價，指數靠 Mega Cap 與 AI 撐住且市場寬度極差，但信用利差仍無壓力，尚未出現需要大幅降低曝險的系統性訊號。","updatedAt":1788228889423,"updatedBy":{"userId":"6a952a2a0112437cd678ae","userName":"ming heng Hui"},"version":2,"weekLabel":"2026-09-01 週"},{"createdAt":1788224148386,"deletedAt":null,"id":"default_usdash_folder_6a952a2a0112437cd678ae","isNew":false,"isPublic":false,"itemType":"USDASH_FOLDER","name":"我的美股配置","originPluginDir":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","originPluginID":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","parents":{"usdash":1788224148386},"preParentID":null,"reviewedAt":0,"updatedAt":1788224148386,"updatedBy":{"userId":"6a952a2a0112437cd678ae","userName":"ming heng Hui"},"version":1},{"bubbleScore":66,"createdAt":1789340815339,"dominantVars":"9/16 FOMC是否升息、10Y逼近5%、油價破百後回落","id":"6948df4933f7f019851a785a","itemType":"US_MARKET_STATUS","name":"市場狀態 2026-09-14 週","originPluginDir":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","originPluginID":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","parents":{"default_usdash_folder_6a952a2a0112437cd678ae":1789340815339},"regime":"Late Cycle","riskLight":"yellow","summary":"8月核心CPI超預期把9月升息機率推上85–90%、10Y觸4.979%逼近5%、油價一度破百，但AI需求端以Oracle、Dell、台積電硬數據回擊，維持黃燈、泡沫溫度計66/100。","updatedAt":1789340815339,"updatedBy":{"agentId":"3cf0fbdf278729c157b1889f","agentName":"市場與 AI 週期研究員","userId":"6a952a2a0112437cd678ae","userName":"ming heng Hui"},"version":1,"weekLabel":"2026-09-14 週"},{"bubbleScore":64,"createdAt":1788735879425,"dominantVars":"9/11 CPI 與 9/16 FOMC 是否升息、油價與荷姆茲局勢、AI 財報強但股價已提前定價","id":"cd42f06c20211c6275a97db4","itemType":"US_MARKET_STATUS","name":"市場狀態 2026-09-07 週","originPluginDir":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","originPluginID":"e8d4f294d3aa6a454971a750","parents":{"default_usdash_folder_6a952a2a0112437cd678ae":1788735879425},"regime":"Late Cycle","riskLight":"yellow","summary":"Late Cycle：8 月非農大超預期（+162K）把 9 月升息機率推回 60% 上方、10Y 升破 4.78%、Brent 逼近 $96，但 Broadcom 財報爆表且信用與波動面無壓力，維持黃燈、尚未出現需大幅降曝險的系統性訊號。","updatedAt":1788735879425,"updatedBy":{"agentId":"3cf0fbdf278729c157b1889f","agentName":"市場與 AI 週期研究員","userId":"6a952a2a0112437cd678ae","userName":"ming heng Hui"},"version":1,"weekLabel":"2026-09-07 週"}]}