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WINSON"},"version":2},{"away":"般尼","awayOdds":2.72,"createdAt":1787483685978,"drawOdds":3,"handicap":"未開（滾球0:0 MTS，庫內同HAD主流 平手0 / 主讓平半0/-0.5）","home":"西布朗","homeOdds":2.32,"id":"feacb6c7340cb555a8e7f025","itemType":"ODDSANALYSIS","league":"英格蘭冠軍聯賽","matchNo":"FB3606","name":"西布朗 vs 般尼 FB3606｜英冠 19:00 逐彩池同賠率篩選 2026-08-23","note":"【逐彩池英冠三維篩選】210k庫209,943條已索引。HAD嚴格1場侯城2:0域斯咸｜±0.02窗口8場5主3客62.5%｜±0.05窗口66場27主17和22客40.9/25.8/33.3=和客59.1%＞主。HDC平手27場下盤55.6% 平半12場下盤66.7%指向客不敗；HIL2.5線61場細56.1%弱偏細；HHAD樣本不足。外圍Spreadex2.75/3.20/2.55 vs馬會2.32/3.00/2.72 水位13.2%偏高 馬會壓主抬客。終極取向：唔買主勝直膽；首選客隊不敗X2/平手下盤(般尼+0或+0.25)，次選細2.5，避主讓上盤。注碼0.5-1%試探($3-6)。詳見筆記速掃報告。","openAwayOdds":2.74,"openDrawOdds":2.96,"openHomeOdds":2.33,"originPluginDir":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","originPluginID":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","parents":{"default_oddsanalysis_folder_6a89699501d95b4d59ff78":1787483685978},"riskLevel":"中","stakeRatio":0.01,"updatedAt":1787483685978,"updatedBy":{"agentId":"ceo","agentName":"CEO","userId":"6a89699501d95b4d59ff78","userName":"WINSON WINSON"},"version":1},{"away":"拿玻里","awayOdds":2.02,"createdAt":1787428457400,"drawOdds":3.11,"handicap":"拿玻里 客讓平/半(即時) ← 半/一(初盤)","handicapValue":"-0.25","handicapWater":0.72,"hkHandicapA":1.85,"hkHandicapD":3.02,"hkHandicapH":3.88,"home":"熱拿亞","homeOdds":4.24,"id":"8ed33d47c2dfff01c6700bf9","itemType":"ODDSANALYSIS","league":"意大利甲組聯賽","mainHandicap":-0.25,"matchNo":"08-23 02:45 費拉里斯 多雲24℃","name":"熱拿亞 vs 拿玻里 盤口精算｜意甲開幕戰 08-23 02:45","note":"【177家均值精算】主4.24/和3.11/客2.02 返還95.02% 去水22.4%/30.6%/47.0%｜馬會3.55/2.94/1.96返還88.3%壓水｜凱利均值0.95/0.95/0.95無超1.0正期望｜【盤路】半一→平半連續退盤 最深僅-0.25 莊家對客勝大勝無信心｜【GP-001 0/5未激活】無深盤無激水無背叛｜【情報】熱拿亞缺Venturino/Traore 拿玻里缺Buongiorno/Mazzocchi 丁丁後備 阿歷基首秀｜【推論】退盤利和 1-1(18%) 0-1(16%) 為雙膽 保命依第五棒輕注1-2% 唔追0-2大勝陷阱","openAwayOdds":1.78,"openDrawOdds":3.37,"openHomeOdds":4.85,"originPluginDir":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","originPluginID":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","parents":{"default_oddsanalysis_folder_6a89699501d95b4d59ff78":1787428457400},"riskLevel":"中","stakeRatio":0.015,"updatedAt":1787428457400,"updatedBy":{"agentId":"ceo","agentName":"CEO","userId":"6a89699501d95b4d59ff78","userName":"WINSON WINSON"},"version":1},{"away":"阿士東維拉","awayOdds":2.98,"createdAt":1787415839213,"drawOdds":3.45,"handicap":"白禮頓[-1]主讓一球","handicapValue":"-1","handicapWater":1.85,"hkHandicap":-1,"hkHandicapA":1.61,"hkHandicapD":3.85,"hkHandicapH":3.85,"home":"白禮頓","homeOdds":1.99,"id":"757a0105ed9df2755a7bdd4d","itemType":"ODDSANALYSIS","league":"英超","mainHandicap":-0.5,"matchNo":"FB2839","name":"白禮頓 vs 阿士東維拉 FB2839","note":"【工具精算】隱含機率(去水位) 主44.6%/和25.7%/客29.8%｜水位12.79%偏高(馬會真實盤)｜公平賠率2.24/3.89/3.36｜凱利指數三邊 主1.337/和0.771/客0.893｜凱利規則:客勝凱利\u003c0.90莊家對維拉有戒心(R20)、和局凱利\u003c0.90莊家強烈信和(R23)｜升降盤:初=現1.99/3.45/2.98 三邊持平｜工具風險=高(水位\u003e8%＋主勝機率\u003c45%＋熱門賠率\u003e2.0共3分)。【綜合判斷】主勝機率44.6%未過半、熱門賠率2.24\u003e2.0，屬均勢偏客場｜凱利和/客雙低顯示莊家對維拉客隊與和局有戒心，防冷方向在維拉受讓+0.5｜風險偏高，注碼1%超輕注，爆冷星級★★★｜讓球主客和三邊已填(hkHandicapH3.85/D3.85/A1.61)供匹配維度三重篩選。","openAwayOdds":2.98,"openDrawOdds":3.45,"openHomeOdds":1.99,"originPluginDir":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","originPluginID":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","parents":{"default_oddsanalysis_folder_6a89699501d95b4d59ff78":1787415839313},"riskLevel":"高","stakeRatio":0.01,"updatedAt":1787416067921,"updatedBy":{"agentId":"422174d719e7d19a058748e6","agentName":"盤路與凱利分析員","userId":"6a89699501d95b4d59ff78","userName":"WINSON WINSON"},"version":2},{"away":"車路士","awayOdds":1.89,"createdAt":1787415839213,"drawOdds":3.6,"handicap":"車路士客讓半球/一球","handicapValue":"+1","handicapWater":1.88,"hkHandicap":1,"hkHandicapA":3.1,"hkHandicapD":3.7,"hkHandicapH":1.83,"home":"富咸","homeOdds":3.45,"id":"85434cd28129789c3c2706bd","itemType":"ODDSANALYSIS","league":"英超","mainHandicap":0.5,"matchNo":"","name":"富咸 vs 車路士","note":"【工具精算】隱含機率(去水位) 主26.4%/和25.3%/客48.2%｜水位9.67%｜公平賠率3.78/3.95/2.07｜凱利指數三邊 主0.793/和0.760/客1.447｜凱利規則:主勝凱利\u003c0.85誘盤信號(R19)、和局凱利\u003c0.90莊家強烈信和(R23)｜升降盤:初3.05/3.60/1.89→現3.45/3.60/1.89 主退盤/和持平/客持平｜盤路規則:主隊水位1.88\u003e1.05且主勝退盤=誘上(R10)｜工具風險=中(水位\u003e8%＋熱門賠率\u003e2.0共2分)。【綜合判斷】車路士作客1.89熱度偏高，打吡場次主勝退盤+主隊水位高觸發誘上，防車仔假熱爆冷，富咸不敗方向值博，爆冷星級★★★★｜凱利和局0.760顯示莊家對和局有信心，打吡易爆冷和/主勝｜車路士客讓半球門檻偏高，注碼2%輕注，打吡宜減注；工具風險中，實戰建議僅小注｜讓球主客和三邊已填(hkHandicapH1.83/D3.7/A3.1)供匹配維度三重篩選。","openAwayOdds":1.89,"openDrawOdds":3.6,"openHomeOdds":3.05,"originPluginDir":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","originPluginID":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","parents":{"default_oddsanalysis_folder_6a89699501d95b4d59ff78":1787415839513},"riskLevel":"中","stakeRatio":0.02,"updatedAt":1787416067921,"updatedBy":{"agentId":"422174d719e7d19a058748e6","agentName":"盤路與凱利分析員","userId":"6a89699501d95b4d59ff78","userName":"WINSON WINSON"},"version":2},{"away":"利物浦","awayOdds":1.93,"createdAt":1787415839213,"drawOdds":3.65,"handicap":"利物浦客讓半球","handicapValue":"+1","handicapWater":1.85,"hkHandicap":1,"hkHandicapA":3.7,"hkHandicapD":3.35,"hkHandicapH":1.77,"home":"紐卡素","homeOdds":3.15,"id":"3c4c17c79c2dc9309e564047","itemType":"ODDSANALYSIS","league":"英超","mainHandicap":0.5,"matchNo":"","name":"紐卡素 vs 利物浦","note":"【工具精算】隱含機率(去水位) 主28.6%/和24.7%/客46.7%｜水位10.96%偏高｜公平賠率3.50/4.05/2.14｜凱利指數三邊 主0.858/和0.741/客1.401｜凱利規則:和局凱利\u003c0.90莊家強烈信和(R23)；主勝凱利0.858貼近0.85未觸發誘盤邊界｜升降盤:初2.97/3.65/1.93→現3.15/3.65/1.93 主退盤/和持平/客持平｜盤路規則:主隊水位1.85\u003e1.05且主勝退盤=誘上(R10)｜工具風險=中(水位\u003e8%＋熱門賠率\u003e2.0共2分)。【綜合判斷】利物浦客隊輕熱(1.93)，但主勝退盤+主隊水位高觸發誘上信號，疊加主勝凱利貼近0.85臨界，紐卡素不敗/主勝方向有誘盤風險，防利物浦作客爆冷(規則43)｜注碼2%輕注，爆冷星級★★★★★｜讓球主客和三邊已填(hkHandicapH1.77/D3.35/A3.7)供匹配維度三重篩選。","openAwayOdds":1.93,"openDrawOdds":3.65,"openHomeOdds":2.97,"originPluginDir":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","originPluginID":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","parents":{"default_oddsanalysis_folder_6a89699501d95b4d59ff78":1787415839413},"riskLevel":"中","stakeRatio":0.02,"updatedAt":1787416067921,"updatedBy":{"agentId":"422174d719e7d19a058748e6","agentName":"盤路與凱利分析員","userId":"6a89699501d95b4d59ff78","userName":"WINSON WINSON"},"version":2},{"away":"般尼茅夫","awayOdds":6,"createdAt":1787415839213,"deepHandicap":-1.5,"deepUnderdogWater":1.98,"drawOdds":4.8,"handicap":"曼城[-1/-1.5]主讓一球半","handicapValue":"-1.25","handicapWater":1.89,"hkHandicap":-1.25,"hkHandicapA":2.7,"hkHandicapD":3.7,"hkHandicapH":2,"home":"曼城","homeOdds":1.32,"id":"eaa406a210facbc48cf8fdc3","itemType":"ODDSANALYSIS","league":"英超","mainHandicap":-1.25,"matchNo":"FB2838","name":"曼城 vs 般尼茅夫 FB2838","note":"【工具精算】隱含機率(去水位) 主66.9%/和18.4%/客14.7%｜水位13.26%偏高｜公平賠率1.50/5.44/6.80｜凱利指數三邊 主2.007/和0.552/客0.441｜凱利規則:客勝凱利\u003c0.90莊家對般茅有戒心(R20)、和局凱利\u003c0.90莊家強烈信和(R23)｜升降盤:初1.33/4.75/6.00→現1.32/4.80/6.00 主持平/和退盤/客持平｜工具風險=低(水位\u003e8%僅1分)。【綜合判斷】深盤主熱(讓一球半-1.25)，水位13.26%明顯偏高，莊家以高水位壓縮主勝價值，般茅受讓門檻使上盤值博率低｜凱利和/客雙低顯示莊家對和局與客隊有戒心，防冷方向在般茅受讓｜注碼3%為上限，深盤慎追上盤，爆冷星級★★｜讓球主客和三邊已填(hkHandicapH2.0/D3.7/A2.7)供匹配維度三重篩選。","openAwayOdds":6,"openDrawOdds":4.75,"openHomeOdds":1.33,"originPluginDir":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","originPluginID":"01850831b06df5c7a7eec569","parents":{"default_oddsanalysis_folder_6a89699501d95b4d59ff78":1787415839213},"riskLevel":"低","stakeRatio":0.03,"updatedAt":1787416067921,"updatedBy":{"agentId":"422174d719e7d19a058748e6","agentName":"盤路與凱利分析員","userId":"6a89699501d95b4d59ff78","userName":"WINSON WINSON"},"version":2},{"away":"阿士東維拉","awayOdds":3.31,"createdAt":1787415668651,"drawOdds":3.75,"handicap":"維拉 受讓半球（+0.5）","handicapValue":"+0.5","home":"白禮頓","homeOdds":2.28,"id":"9c1f8477caf5c5a96a21835f","itemType":"ODDSANALYSIS","league":"英格蘭超級聯賽","mainHandicap":-0.5,"matchNo":"08-23 14:00 BST 美國運通球場（香港21:00）","name":"白禮頓 vs 阿士東維拉 盤口精算｜英超2026-27第1輪 08-23","note":"【工具精算】隱含機率(去水位) 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